Will Danny party like it's ... 2009?

As another bracing Canadian winter sails towards its inevitable conclusion, Canada’s political wunderkind plans to celebrate the rights of spring with a party marking Newfoundland and Labrador’s new status as a “have” province.
Details remain tightly sealed under a cloak of secrecy, but we can be certain that it will feature Danny Williams in vintage form: the word “pride” and the term “masters of our own destiny” will be sprinkled liberally in speeches before rapturous crowds at hockey arenas stretching from St. John’s to Happy Valley-Goose Bay.
Or will he perhaps forgo the tour and limit himself to a televised address to the masses, citing “budgetary constraints?” Certainly, there must be some niggling doubt in Williams’ mind about whether the multitudes will show up should he arrive in their midst, and, if so, whether some of those in attendance might have a few choice words of their own for Danny.
After all, Williams was elected because he was perceived as a highly competent businessman who could presumably work the magic required to diversify Newfoundland and Labrador’s one-trick pony of an economy – hewers of wood, fishers of cod, diggers of iron ore, and suckers of oil.
From the time of Williams’ election in 2003 to the federal election in 2008 his government gained significant political capital via the ritual flaying of two prime ministers, first Paul Martin and then Stephen Harper. The domestic audience loved the spectacle, so much so that few people bothered to seriously question how the fundamentals of the economy were faring.
Now, five years into Williams’ term as premier, and in the midst of a worldwide recession, people are starting to wonder what – in reality – his government has achieved. Is Danny Williams the Lehman Brothers of Canadian politics?
Since taking office, the province has seen no significant growth in manufacturing and there are precious few signs that the economy will reduce its dependency on extracting natural resources. In fact, these sectors were in a state of decline long before Canada’s economy joined the recessionary vortex last year.
In 2003, the province had three paper mills; it will soon have only one, with the closure of the century old Grand Falls-Windsor plant this spring. Labrador’s two iron ore mines are shedding jobs, and there are lingering questions about whether Vale Inco will actually build its much-anticipated nickel processing plant in Long Harbour, as announced last fall.
As for the fishery, while it is too early to predict prices for 2009, the prognosis is not good. Much of the industry has relied on snow crab, but with softening markets in the U.S. – as consumers eschew eating in restaurants – fishermen may find it difficult to pay their crews, let alone turning a profit on crab.
Then there is the oil industry. Lost in the hoopla of $150 per barrel oil last year, and the announcement that the Hebron project will proceed, was the sobering reality that crude production peaked in 2007, and is forecast to decline year after year unless new commercially viable oil fields are discovered. Unfortunately, the last viable field was found twenty-five years ago, despite the expenditure of hundreds of millions of dollars on exploration efforts since the mid-1980s.
To make matters worse, a flood of Newfoundlanders who had found jobs in Alberta’s oilsands projects are expected to return home in the wake of layoffs in that province.
The government is anticipating a budgetary surplus for 2009, but even Williams has admitted that a return to deficits will likely occur in 2010. So what will his message be to the growing numbers of unemployed and economically distressed workers as he celebrates “have” status – perhaps “Party like there’s no tomorrow?”